🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for FC Eindhoven, 5 for De Graafschap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with De Graafschap winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 48% versus De Graafschap 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 62% | De Graafschap 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.66 xG and De Graafschap 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.162 / defence 0.939 | De Graafschap attack 1.148 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.508. Data: 71 FC Eindhoven games / 71 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 39% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 38%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights