Waalwijk 2-1 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 50%, yet in-form Waalwijk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong AZ travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waalwijk have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong AZ stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Jong AZ have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Waalwijk are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2025, ended Waalwijk 3–2 Jong AZ — a Waalwijk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 66% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 66% | Jong AZ 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Jong AZ have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.944 / defence 1.103 | Jong AZ attack 1.299 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Jong AZ have an above-average attack rating of 1.299, which lifts their away xG to 2.11. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 30 games and Jong AZ's last 68.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 28% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 50%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.58 | Draw 4.56 | Jong AZ 1.99. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.55 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waalwijk (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 28% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Waalwijk 1.55 / Jong AZ 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.944 / def 1.103 | Jong AZ attack 1.299 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Jong AZ xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Jong AZ kick off?
Waalwijk vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Waalwijk 2 - 1 Jong AZ.
Where is Waalwijk vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Jong AZ part of?
Waalwijk vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 28% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 50% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Waalwijk and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.94) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 30 games and Jong AZ's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
28%
3.58
22%
4.56
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.67
2.11
Jong AZ xG
3.58
28%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
12%
8.28
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
3%
29.66
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.11 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 18W 15D 31L from 64 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 31L across 64 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.08 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 7D 14L from their last 32 home games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 15W 5D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
Waalwijk (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Waalwijk vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 21W 12D 31L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.25 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2025. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
0
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Jong AZ?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 2, Jong AZ have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Waalwijk 2-1 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Jong AZ?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 62%, Jong AZ at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Waalwijk and 69% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 69% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Waalwijk's matches and 69% of Jong AZ's.
Do Waalwijk and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 84% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waalwijk defy the odds to beat Jong AZ 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Jong AZ 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.55 xG and Jong AZ 2.11 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.30 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 28% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 50%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Waalwijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.08 PPG, Jong AZ 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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