Roda 1-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus MVV in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Current Form
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
MVV (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Roda's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Roda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, MVV in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 58% and MVV 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | MVV 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.72 xG and MVV 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.088 / defence 0.753 | MVV attack 0.989 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.394. Roda's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Roda games / 53 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 22%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | MVV 4.55. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | MVV 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Roda 1.72 / MVV 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.088 / def 0.753 | MVV attack 0.989 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.04
MVV xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs MVV kick off?
Roda vs MVV kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs MVV?
Roda 1 - 0 MVV.
Where is Roda vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs MVV part of?
Roda vs MVV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, MVV a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Roda and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
Record (4 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 2 | MVV 0W.
What form are Roda and MVV in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. MVV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 1.09x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.99x) against Roda's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.91
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Roda xG
Total xG
2.75
1.04
MVV xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
25.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Roda and 1.04 for MVV, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 23L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Roda against 1.36 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 13W 5D 9L from 27 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 8W 4D 15L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.55 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 70%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and MVV in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while MVV have gone 21W 9D 23L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or MVV away?
Roda's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.63 PPG; MVV away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 0-3 on 17 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
3
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, MVV have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Roda and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Roda 2-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Roda and MVV?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 63%, MVV 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Roda and 70% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Roda's games and 67% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Roda's matches and 70% of MVV's.
Do Roda and MVV tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, MVV in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out MVV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat MVV 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.72 xG and MVV 1.04 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. MVV landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.75 against MVV attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 26% | MVV 22%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, MVV 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.36 PPG, MVV 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.