Jong PSV U21 1-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Jong AZ at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong AZ — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Jong AZ 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 67% and Jong AZ 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 69% | Jong AZ 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.87 xG and Jong AZ 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.046 / defence 1.244 | Jong AZ attack 0.858 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Data: 51 Jong PSV U21 games / 52 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 46% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Jong AZ 3.45. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong AZ (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 46% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.87 / Jong AZ 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.046 / def 1.244 | Jong AZ attack 0.858 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Jong AZ xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 46% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Record (4 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
46%
2.18
25%
4.05
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.35
1.48
Jong AZ xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
5%
22.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.48 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 17W 10D 24L from 51 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 20L across 51 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.20 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 9W 4D 12L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 6W 4D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.57 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 24L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.24 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong AZ have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 68%, Jong AZ 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Jong PSV U21 and 64% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 64% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.87 xG and Jong AZ 1.48 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.24 against Jong AZ attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 46% | Draw 25% | Jong AZ 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 69%, Jong AZ 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.20 PPG, Jong AZ 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.