MVV 4-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, MVV have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jong AZ's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for MVV, 1.40 for Jong AZ — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from MVV's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of MVV's games and 80% of Jong AZ's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Jong AZ have the stronger record — 3 wins to MVV's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended MVV 1–3 Jong AZ — a Jong AZ win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Jong AZ have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
MVV — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 68% and Jong AZ 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 67% | Jong AZ 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.29 xG and Jong AZ 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.762 / defence 1.166 | Jong AZ attack 0.920 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. MVV's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from MVV's last 54 games and Jong AZ's last 54.
Result probabilities: MVV 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.11 | Draw 3.77 | Jong AZ 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Jong AZ 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong AZ if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: MVV 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG MVV 1.29 / Jong AZ 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.762 / def 1.166 | Jong AZ attack 0.920 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does MVV vs Jong AZ kick off?
MVV vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
MVV 4 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is MVV vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong AZ part of?
MVV vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 32% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both MVV and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will MVV vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.76x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.92x) against MVV's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 54 games and Jong AZ's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.77
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
MVV xG
Total xG
2.79
1.49
Jong AZ xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for MVV and 1.49 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 9D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.39 PPG from 54 outings (21W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for MVV against 1.39 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
MVV's home form reads 13W 5D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 4D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.57 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
MVV (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ MVV vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are MVV and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 21W 9D 24L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong AZ away?
MVV's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.69 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: MVV won MVV 4-0 Jong AZ on 1 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 4, Jong AZ have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Jong AZ 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for MVV, 62% for Jong AZ — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for MVV and 65% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of MVV's games and 62% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are MVV and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of MVV's matches and 65% of Jong AZ's.
Do MVV and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of MVV's recent matches and 77% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant MVV run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Jong AZ 4-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.29 xG and Jong AZ 1.49 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.76 / defence 1.17 against Jong AZ attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 32% | Draw 27% | Jong AZ 41%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual MVV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 67%, Jong AZ 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, Jong AZ 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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