Cambuur 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cambuur against 1.90 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 50% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 69% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.45 xG and Roda 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.175 / defence 1.307 | Roda attack 0.927 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.370. Roda's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Cambuur games / 52 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 32% | Draw 26% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 32% | Draw 26% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Cambuur 1.45 / Roda 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.175 / def 1.307 | Roda attack 0.927 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Roda kick off?
Cambuur vs Roda kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 November 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Roda?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Cambuur vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Roda part of?
Cambuur vs Roda is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 32% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cambuur and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Roda in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.93x) against Cambuur's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
32%
3.08
26%
3.84
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.11
1.66
Roda xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.20
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.66 for Roda, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 12W 6D 30L from 48 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 20L across 48 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 7W 1D 15L from 23 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 5W 6D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.42 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Roda in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 12W 6D 30L in their last 48 games (0.88 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 11D 20L in their last 48 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Roda away?
Cambuur's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.96 PPG; Roda away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
4
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Roda have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 44%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Cambuur and 48% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 44% of games; Roda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cambuur's recent matches and 56% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Cambuur's matches and 48% of Roda's.
Do Cambuur and Roda tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Roda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.45 xG and Roda 1.66 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.18 / defence 1.31 against Roda attack 0.93 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 32% | Draw 26% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 69%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.