NAC Breda 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours NAC Breda (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NAC Breda face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 4W 2D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Den Bosch (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 76% and Den Bosch 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 68% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.030 / defence 1.157 | Den Bosch attack 0.810 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 NAC Breda games / 53 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 55% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 22%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Den Bosch 4.55. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 55% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG NAC Breda 2.12 / Den Bosch 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.030 / def 1.157 | Den Bosch attack 0.810 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Den Bosch xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Den Bosch kick off?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch part of?
NAC Breda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 55% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NAC Breda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 3W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.81x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.36
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.42
1.30
Den Bosch xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
12%
8.32
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
3%
38.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.30 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 23W 9D 21L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 13W 6D 34L from 53 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, NAC Breda are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 2D 20L from 26 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.17 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 23W 9D 21L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 6D 34L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Den Bosch away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.58 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
1
Draws
1
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Den Bosch?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 77%, Den Bosch 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for NAC Breda and 65% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of NAC Breda's games and 46% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of Den Bosch's.
Do NAC Breda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Den Bosch 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 1.30 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Den Bosch attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 55% | Draw 23% | Den Bosch 22%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 68%, Den Bosch 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.