Dordrecht 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Roda — this Dordrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Roda at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Dordrecht — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dordrecht have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Roda have recorded 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 1.70 PPG versus Roda's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Dordrecht's games and 60% of Roda's (from Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Roda have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Dordrecht. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Dordrecht 0–1 Roda — a Roda win.
Roda have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 58% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Roda 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Roda have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.57 xG and Roda 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.308 / defence 1.197 | Roda attack 0.911 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.308 — their 1.57 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Roda bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 53 games and Roda's last 54.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.59 | Draw 3.99 | Roda 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Roda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 80% (last 10 home games) | Roda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 17 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Dordrecht 1.57 / Roda 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.308 / def 1.197 | Roda attack 0.911 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Roda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Roda FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Roda kick off?
Dordrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is Dordrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Roda part of?
Dordrecht vs Roda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 17) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dordrecht and Roda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.31) and Roda's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 53 games and Roda's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
39%
2.59
25%
3.99
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.09
1.52
Roda xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
8%
13.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Roda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.52 for Roda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 16D 23L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.09 PPG, Roda on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 9D 9L).
On the road, Roda have gone 6W 7D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.42 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Roda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Roda Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 14W 16D 23L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Roda away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.20 PPG; Roda away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Roda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won Roda 4-0 Dordrecht.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
0
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Roda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Roda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 4, Roda have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Roda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Dordrecht and 48% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 28% of games; Roda in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Roda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Roda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 56% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and Roda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Dordrecht's matches and 48% of Roda's.
Do Dordrecht and Roda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 72% of Roda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Roda 2-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.57 xG and Roda 1.52 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.20 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 0.77, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 39% | Draw 25% | Roda 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Roda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.09 PPG, Roda 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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