Dordrecht 1-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Jong Utrecht at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at M-Scores Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Dordrecht) versus 1.30 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Dordrecht: 4 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Jong Utrecht, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dordrecht and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 49% versus Jong Utrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | Jong Utrecht 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.771 / defence 0.779 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.809 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.461. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Dordrecht games / 55 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Jong Utrecht 4.35. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | Jong Utrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Dordrecht 1.52 / Jong Utrecht 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.771 / def 0.779 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.809 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Jong Utrecht xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht 1 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Record (8 meetings): Dordrecht 4W | Draws 3 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.87
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.44
0.92
Jong Utrecht xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.92 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 26W 14D 15L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 9W 16D 30L from 55 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (15W 9D 3L).
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 7D 18L from 27 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.00 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 26W 14D 15L in their last 55 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 9W 16D 30L in their last 55 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.48 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 59%, Jong Utrecht 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Dordrecht and 59% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Dordrecht's games and 56% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Dordrecht's matches and 59% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Dordrecht 1-2 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.92 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.77 / defence 0.78 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Jong Utrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, Jong Utrecht 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.