Dordrecht 1-1 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Vitesse travel to M-Scores Stadion to take on Dordrecht. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 5W 2D 3L at M-Scores Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Dordrecht are significantly better at M-Scores Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Vitesse have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dordrecht at 1.00 PPG versus Vitesse's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Vitesse in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, Vitesse 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 49% versus Vitesse 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 61% | Vitesse 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.44 xG and Vitesse 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.812 / defence 0.794 | Vitesse attack 1.209 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.468. Vitesse have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Dordrecht games / 51 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 37%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | Vitesse 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Dordrecht 1.44 / Vitesse 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.812 / def 0.794 | Vitesse attack 1.209 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Vitesse xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Dordrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 Vitesse.
Where is Dordrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Dordrecht vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 38% chance of winning, Vitesse a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dordrecht and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Vitesse in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Vitesse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.81) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
38%
2.61
25%
4.00
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.85
1.41
Vitesse xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.41 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 12D 14L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (16W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dordrecht's home form reads 15W 8D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.53 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse in 61%.
Defensively: Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 25W 12D 14L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 16W 14D 21L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.04 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Vitesse in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when Dordrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
2
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, Vitesse have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Vitesse 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Vitesse?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, Vitesse 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Dordrecht and 73% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dordrecht's games and 62% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Dordrecht's matches and 73% of Vitesse's.
Do Dordrecht and Vitesse tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Vitesse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Dordrecht and Vitesse drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.44 xG and Vitesse 1.41 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Vitesse attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 38% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 37%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 61%, Vitesse 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitesse's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.