MVV 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 45%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Almere City FC travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, MVV stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
MVV's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 8W 0D 2L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Almere City FC have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Almere City FC are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from MVV's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, MVV have won 2, Almere City FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2025, ended MVV 0–4 Almere City FC — a Almere City FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
MVV in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 50% versus Almere City FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 62% | Almere City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.10 xG and Almere City FC 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.957 / defence 1.038 | Almere City FC attack 1.107 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.553. Almere City FC's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing MVV's projected output up. Data: built from MVV's last 62 games and Almere City FC's last 24.
Result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.24 | Draw 4.37 | Almere City FC 3.09. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.78) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates MVV as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.88 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: MVV 70% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% (Under 26%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG MVV 2.10 / Almere City FC 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.957 / def 1.038 | Almere City FC attack 1.107 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: MVV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Almere City FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does MVV vs Almere City FC kick off?
MVV vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 2 February 2026 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
MVV 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is MVV vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Almere City FC part of?
MVV vs Almere City FC is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 45% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both MVV and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will MVV vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from MVV's attack rating (0.96) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 62 games and Almere City FC's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.37
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
MVV xG
Total xG
3.88
1.78
Almere City FC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
8%
13.31
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are MVV and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for MVV and 1.78 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, MVV have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 13D 29L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 16W 12D 30L from 58 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.05 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 6D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 7W 5D 16L from their last 28 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
MVV (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ MVV vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are MVV and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 16W 13D 29L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 16W 12D 30L in their last 58 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Almere City FC away?
MVV's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.50 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won Almere City FC 4-0 MVV.
MVV's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
MVV
1
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Almere City FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 2, Almere City FC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did MVV and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: MVV 0-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 61%, Almere City FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for MVV and 57% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of MVV's recent matches and 46% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are MVV and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of MVV's matches and 57% of Almere City FC's.
Do MVV and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of MVV's recent matches and 82% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.10 xG and Almere City FC 1.78 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. MVV fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Almere City FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 62%, Almere City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.05 PPG, Almere City FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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