FC OSS vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 41%, yet in-form FC OSS provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, FC OSS have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC OSS, 4 for Jong AZ and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 64% and Jong AZ 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 62% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.01 xG and Jong AZ 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.957 / defence 1.016 | Jong AZ attack 1.194 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC OSS games / 43 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 41%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong AZ as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC OSS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG FC OSS 2.01 / Jong AZ 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.957 / def 1.016 | Jong AZ attack 1.194 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Jong AZ xG
76%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 41% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (10 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
39%
2.58
20%
4.88
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
FC OSS xG
Total xG
4.07
2.06
Jong AZ xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.10
Clean Sheet
13%
7.85
13%
7.47
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
5%
18.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.06 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 11D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (14W 4D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.12 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 7W 3D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (9W 2D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.62 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 14W 4D 24L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 71%, Jong AZ at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 81% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 71% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 81% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.