FC OSS vs Jong AZ – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Jong AZ at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.20 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC OSS, 4 for Jong AZ and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 65% and Jong AZ 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 65% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.67 xG and Jong AZ 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.172 / defence 0.912 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.601 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 FC OSS games / 49 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 50% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 31%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.00 | Draw 5.56 | Jong AZ 3.23. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 82% | Total xG 4.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 82% reflects that both xG figures (2.67 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.81 combined xG gives a 86% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 82% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 90% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 50% | Draw 18% | Jong AZ 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 82% | xG FC OSS 2.67 / Jong AZ 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.172 / def 0.912 | Jong AZ attack 1.601 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.67
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Jong AZ xG
82%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Jong AZ part of?
FC OSS vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 50% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 31% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 82% probability that both FC OSS and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Record (10 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 3 | Jong AZ 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC OSS's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.67. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 6.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.2%), 3-2 (5.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 19% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
50%
1.99
18%
5.48
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
3 – 2
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.67
FC OSS xG
Total xG
4.81
2.13
Jong AZ xG
1.99
50%
Home win
5.48
18%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
71%
Over 3.5
1.41
29%
Under 3.5
3.45
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.22
18%
BTTS No
5.58
Clean Sheet
12%
8.46
7%
14.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
2%
45.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.67 expected goals for FC OSS and 2.13 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 11D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.10 PPG from 49 outings (16W 6D 27L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.14 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC OSS's home form reads 10W 3D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.78 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 6D 27L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.38 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jong AZ won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
3
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Jong AZ have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC OSS 0-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 71%, Jong AZ at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for FC OSS and 79% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 75% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of FC OSS's matches and 79% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC OSS and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.