Jong PSV U21 5-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Roda at PSV Campus De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.40 PPG versus Roda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Roda and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Roda in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and Roda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.63 xG and Roda 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.054 / defence 1.182 | Roda attack 0.905 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.331. Data: 68 Jong PSV U21 games / 68 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 24% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 80% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 24% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.63 / Roda 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.054 / def 1.182 | Roda attack 0.905 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Roda xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Jong PSV U21 5 - 1 Roda.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Roda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 43% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 3 | Roda 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.05) and Roda's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.42
Roda xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.42 for Roda, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21 come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 19D 28L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.54 PPG from 68 outings (29W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.21 PPG, Roda on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong PSV U21's home form reads 13W 8D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.35 points per game from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.71 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 21W 19D 28L in their last 68 games (1.21 PPG), while Roda have gone 29W 18D 21L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Roda away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.38 PPG; Roda away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2023, when Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
3
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Roda have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Roda 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, Roda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong PSV U21 and 53% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 56% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 53% of Roda's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Roda tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Roda 5-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.63 xG and Roda 1.42 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 24% | Roda 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 63%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.21 PPG, Roda 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.