VVV Venlo 1-3 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VVV Venlo host NAC Breda at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VVV Venlo stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
NAC Breda's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — VVV Venlo at 2.00 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VVV Venlo, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with VVV Venlo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 57% versus NAC Breda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 60% | NAC Breda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.62 xG and NAC Breda 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.852 / defence 0.818 | NAC Breda attack 0.990 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.312. Data: 68 VVV Venlo games / 68 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 50% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 25%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | NAC Breda 4.00. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 50% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 50% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG VVV Venlo 1.62 / NAC Breda 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.852 / def 0.818 | NAC Breda attack 0.990 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.06
NAC Breda xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda kick off?
VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda?
VVV Venlo 1 - 3 NAC Breda.
Where is VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda part of?
VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 50% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VVV Venlo and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and NAC Breda?
Record (3 meetings): VVV Venlo 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and NAC Breda in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.85) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
50%
1.99
25%
4.04
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.06
NAC Breda xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.06 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 29W 13D 26L from 68 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 29W 13D 26L across 68 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.47 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 12W 10D 12L from 34 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 11W 5D 18L across 34 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.57 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 29W 13D 26L in their last 68 games (1.47 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 29W 13D 26L in their last 68 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or NAC Breda away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.35 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
VVV Venlo's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, NAC Breda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-0 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 59%, NAC Breda 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for VVV Venlo and 71% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 26% of games; NAC Breda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of VVV Venlo's games and 62% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VVV Venlo's matches and 71% of NAC Breda's.
Do VVV Venlo and NAC Breda tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VVV Venlo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat VVV Venlo 1-3 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.62 xG and NAC Breda 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.85 / defence 0.82 against NAC Breda attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 50% | Draw 25% | NAC Breda 25%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a NAC Breda win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, NAC Breda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.47 PPG, NAC Breda 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.