PEC Zwolle 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 83% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle host Jong Utrecht at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Jong Utrecht's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PEC Zwolle are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Jong Utrecht 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 47% versus Jong Utrecht 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 50% | Jong Utrecht 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 3.38 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.726 / defence 0.852 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.866 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.312. PEC Zwolle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.726 — their λ of 3.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 30 PEC Zwolle games / 67 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 83% | Draw 11% | Jong Utrecht 7%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Jong Utrecht 14.29. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (83%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.38 / 0.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Jong Utrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 83% | Draw 11% | Jong Utrecht 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 60% | xG PEC Zwolle 3.38 / Jong Utrecht 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.726 / def 0.852 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.866 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.38
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
60%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 March 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht?
PEC Zwolle 2 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 83% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.73x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 3.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
83%
1.21
11%
9.50
7%
14.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.38
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
4.35
0.97
Jong Utrecht xG
1.21
83%
Home win
9.50
11%
Draw
14.49
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
3%
29.40
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 3.38 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.97 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 4.35.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 29W 9D 26L from 64 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 40L across 64 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 14W 7D 10L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 8W 5D 18L across 31 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.05 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 29W 9D 26L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 16W 8D 40L in their last 64 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Jong Utrecht away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.58 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2023, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 61%, Jong Utrecht 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PEC Zwolle) and 68% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of PEC Zwolle's games and 68% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 68% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 3.38 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.97 xG, a combined 4.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.73 / defence 0.85 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 83% | Draw 11% | Jong Utrecht 7%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 50%, Jong Utrecht 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.