VVV Venlo 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Covebo Stadion - De Koel - plays host to VVV Venlo versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season.
Roda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.50 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VVV Venlo lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 57% versus Roda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 61% | Roda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.35 xG and Roda 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.841 / defence 0.799 | Roda attack 0.905 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.330. VVV Venlo's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 VVV Venlo games / 67 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 46% | Draw 28% | Roda 27%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 3.70. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 50% | Roda 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 46% | Draw 28% | Roda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG VVV Venlo 1.35 / Roda 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.841 / def 0.799 | Roda attack 0.905 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Roda xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Roda kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Roda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
VVV Venlo 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Roda part of?
VVV Venlo vs Roda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 46% chance of winning, Roda a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both VVV Venlo and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 2 | Roda 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.84x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.91x) against VVV Venlo's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.63
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.31
0.96
Roda xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 0.96 for Roda, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 29W 12D 26L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Roda's form line: 29W 17D 21L from 67 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.55 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
On the road, Roda have gone 12W 9D 12L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.72 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 29W 12D 26L in their last 67 games (1.48 PPG), while Roda have gone 29W 17D 21L in their last 67 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Roda away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.36 PPG; Roda away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
6
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, Roda have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 58%, Roda 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (VVV Venlo) and 54% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 27% of games; Roda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of VVV Venlo's games and 54% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of VVV Venlo's matches and 54% of Roda's.
Do VVV Venlo and Roda tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Roda in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 29, as VVV Venlo and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.35 xG and Roda 0.96 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against Roda attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 46% | Draw 28% | Roda 27%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 61%, Roda 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.48 PPG, Roda 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.