Jong PSV U21 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
De Graafschap make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at PSV Campus De Herdgang this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. De Graafschap are 0.60 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong PSV U21 lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 66% versus De Graafschap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | De Graafschap 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.43 xG and De Graafschap 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.988 / defence 1.290 | De Graafschap attack 1.339 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.311. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Jong PSV U21 games / 67 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 56%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 4.17 | Draw 5.00 | De Graafschap 1.79. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 70% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.43 / De Graafschap 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 0.988 / def 1.290 | De Graafschap attack 1.339 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
2.27
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 24% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 56% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (0.99) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.34x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.27.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
24%
4.21
20%
5.02
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.70
2.27
De Graafschap xG
4.21
24%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
10%
9.64
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
2%
40.58
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 2.27 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 20W 19D 28L from 67 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 25W 18D 24L across 67 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 1.39 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 12W 8D 13L from 33 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 14W 7D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.45 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 20W 19D 28L in their last 67 games (1.18 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 18D 24L in their last 67 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.33 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: De Graafschap have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
8
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, De Graafschap have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 61%, De Graafschap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong PSV U21 and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Jong PSV U21's games and 54% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong PSV U21 defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat De Graafschap 2-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.43 xG and De Graafschap 2.27 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 0.99 / defence 1.29 against De Graafschap attack 1.34 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 24% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 56%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Jong PSV U21 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 63%, De Graafschap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.18 PPG, De Graafschap 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.