Dordrecht 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Matchoholic Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 1W 3D 6L at Matchoholic Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jong PSV U21 are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Jong PSV U21 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 59% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 65% | Jong PSV U21 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.20 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.716 / defence 1.062 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.938 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.312. Dordrecht's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Dordrecht games / 69 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 39%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Jong PSV U21 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 30% | Jong PSV U21 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Dordrecht 1.20 / Jong PSV U21 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.716 / def 1.062 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.938 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Jong PSV U21 xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 34% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.94x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.71
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.31 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 17W 15D 37L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 22W 19D 28L from 69 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.23 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.15 PPG from 34 outings (10W 9D 15L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 8W 11D 15L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 15D 37L in their last 69 games (0.96 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 22W 19D 28L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.15 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 1-4 on 10 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, Jong PSV U21 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dordrecht) and 56% (Jong PSV U21). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 38% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dordrecht's games and 71% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Dordrecht's matches and 56% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.20 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.94 / defence 0.97, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | Jong PSV U21 39%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, Jong PSV U21 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.96 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.