Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jong PSV U21 welcome FC Eindhoven to De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie (matchday 31). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong PSV U21 stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jong PSV U21 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Eindhoven have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jong PSV U21 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of FC Eindhoven's (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, FC Eindhoven 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2025, ended Jong PSV U21 0–4 FC Eindhoven — a FC Eindhoven win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong PSV U21 69% versus FC Eindhoven 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 75% | FC Eindhoven 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.10 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.174 / defence 0.963 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.819 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.476. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 68 games and FC Eindhoven's last 68.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 58% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.72 | Draw 4.58 | FC Eindhoven 5.03. The model has a clear lean to Jong PSV U21 (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and FC Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Eindhoven 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 31 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 58% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Jong PSV U21 2.10 / FC Eindhoven 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.174 / def 0.963 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.819 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC Eindhoven xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 58% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.17x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 68 games and FC Eindhoven's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.58
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.26
1.16
FC Eindhoven xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
2%
41.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.16 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 11D 34L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 25W 13D 30L from 68 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 1.18 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 34 home games (12W 6D 16L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 6D 15L from their last 34 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.49 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs FC Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 23W 11D 34L in their last 68 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 25W 13D 30L in their last 68 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.24 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won FC Eindhoven 4-0 Jong PSV U21.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: FC Eindhoven 1-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 76%, FC Eindhoven 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Jong PSV U21 and 56% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Jong PSV U21's games and 47% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 56% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 79% of FC Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Eindhoven defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong PSV U21 1-2 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.10 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.16 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 58% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 20%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 75%, FC Eindhoven 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.18 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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