Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong AZ face Dordrecht.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Jong AZ — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Jong AZ have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Dordrecht's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.20 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Jong AZ have won 3, Dordrecht 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2025, ended Jong AZ 1–1 Dordrecht — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Jong AZ in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 67% versus Dordrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | Dordrecht 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong AZ surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.845 / defence 1.372 | Dordrecht attack 0.885 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.499. Jong AZ's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 63 games and Dordrecht's last 63.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.50 | Draw 3.92 | Dordrecht 2.18. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.41 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong AZ's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights