Jong Ajax 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 34% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Willem II make the trip to Sportpark De Toekomst to face Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jong Ajax have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Ajax have posted 4W 3D 3L at Sportpark De Toekomst — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
Willem II (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Willem II have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Willem II are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jong Ajax 0W, Willem II 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Willem II — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 74% and Willem II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 68% | Willem II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.081 / defence 0.943 | Willem II attack 0.893 / defence 0.584. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.283. Willem II's defence strength of 0.584 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 Jong Ajax games / 50 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Willem II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 70% | Willem II 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Jong Ajax 1.06 / Willem II 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.081 / def 0.943 | Willem II attack 0.893 / def 0.584 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Willem II (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Willem II xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Jong Ajax 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Jong Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Jong Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.08) and Willem II's defence rating (0.58), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.89x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.06
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.14
1.08
Willem II xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.08 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 13D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.88 PPG from 50 outings (27W 13D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Jong Ajax's home form reads 8W 8D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (8W 11D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.82 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Willem II in 60%.
Defensively: Willem II in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 games (1.04 PPG), while Willem II have gone 27W 13D 10L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.33 PPG; Willem II away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jong Ajax or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Willem II in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Willem II have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Jong Ajax, 58% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jong Ajax) and 50% (Willem II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Jong Ajax's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong Ajax's matches and 50% of Willem II's.
Do Jong Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Willem II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Willem II 1-0 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.06 xG and Willem II 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Willem II landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 0.58, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 33% | Willem II 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 68%, Willem II 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Jong Ajax winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.