Willem II 3-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 8W 1D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Willem II's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Willem II 0W, Jong PSV U21 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Jong PSV U21 half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 60% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | Jong PSV U21 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.90 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.223 / defence 1.039 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.090 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Willem II games / 48 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 66% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 17%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.52 | Draw 5.88 | Jong PSV U21 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (66%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.90 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Jong PSV U21 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 66% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 74% | xG Willem II 2.90 / Jong PSV U21 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.223 / def 1.039 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.090 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Willem II (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
74%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Willem II 3 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 66% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 17% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Willem II and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 0W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.90. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.09x) against Willem II's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
66%
1.52
17%
5.80
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
2 – 2
5.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
Willem II xG
Total xG
4.41
1.51
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
6%
18.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
1%
105.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for Willem II and 1.51 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 4.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 25W 13D 10L from 48 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 22L across 48 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong PSV U21 heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 16W 2D 5L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.56 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Willem II's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.17 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Willem II or Jong PSV U21 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jong PSV U21 in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Willem II
2
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Willem II 1-0 Jong PSV U21.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Willem II, 70% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Willem II and 61% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Willem II's games and 70% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Willem II's matches and 61% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Willem II and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong PSV U21 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.90 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.51 xG, a combined 4.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.22 / defence 1.04 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.09 / defence 1.40, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 66% | Draw 17% | Jong PSV U21 17%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, Jong PSV U21 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.