Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 57%, yet in-form Jong Utrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jong Utrecht — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 55% versus Jong Utrecht 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 69% | Jong Utrecht 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.89 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.836 / defence 1.128 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.706 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.276. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Den Bosch games / 49 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 57% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jong Utrecht (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 60% | Jong Utrecht 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 57% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.89 / Jong Utrecht 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.836 / def 1.128 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.706 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Jong Utrecht xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 57% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.84x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.14
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.90
1.01
Jong Utrecht xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.59
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
34.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.01 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 5D 31L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.82 PPG from 49 outings (10W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.90 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 3D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.38 points per game from 24 outings (2W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.90 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 5D 31L in their last 49 games (0.90 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 10D 29L in their last 49 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.25 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 62%, Jong Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Den Bosch and 58% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 50% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Den Bosch's matches and 58% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht finished level at 1-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.89 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.01 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.71 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 57% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 19%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 69%, Jong Utrecht 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.90 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.