Willem II 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Jong Utrecht travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Willem II, 0 for Jong Utrecht and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Willem II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Jong Utrecht 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | Jong Utrecht 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.62 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.218 / defence 0.947 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.671 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.338. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Willem II games / 50 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 74% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 9%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Jong Utrecht 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | Jong Utrecht 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 74% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG Willem II 2.62 / Jong Utrecht 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.218 / def 0.947 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.671 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Willem II (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jong Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Willem II 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Willem II vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 74% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Willem II and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in?
Willem II (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.62. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.96
9%
11.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.47
0.85
Jong Utrecht xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
11.25
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
7%
13.76
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
154.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Willem II and 0.85 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 26W 13D 11L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 10W 11D 29L from 50 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.24 PPG from 25 outings (18W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 4D 19L from 25 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.90 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 26W 13D 11L in their last 50 games (1.82 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 11D 29L in their last 50 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Willem II's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.24 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Willem II or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
3
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Jong Utrecht?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 60%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Willem II and 56% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Willem II's games and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Willem II's matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Willem II and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.62 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.85 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.22 / defence 0.95 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.67 / defence 1.29, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 74% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 9%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, Jong Utrecht 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.