Groningen 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as Groningen welcome Dordrecht to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Groningen have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dordrecht — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dordrecht are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Dordrecht 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Dordrecht 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.12 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.734 / defence 0.912 | Dordrecht attack 1.013 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.276. Groningen's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Groningen games / 50 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Dordrecht 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 30% | Dordrecht 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Groningen 1.12 / Dordrecht 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.734 / def 0.912 | Dordrecht attack 1.013 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Dordrecht xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Groningen 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Dordrecht part of?
Groningen vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 33% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Groningen and Dordrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.18
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.29
1.18
Dordrecht xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Groningen and 1.18 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen come into this having played 46 games, going 8W 8D 30L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (13W 13D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Groningen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Groningen's home form reads 5W 4D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.91 points per game from 22 outings (5W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.43 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 8W 8D 30L in their last 46 games (0.70 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 13W 13D 20L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 0.86 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Groningen
1
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Dordrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, Dordrecht have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 41%, Dordrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Groningen) and 54% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Groningen's recent matches and 64% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Groningen's recent games and 54% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 13, as Groningen and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.12 xG and Dordrecht 1.18 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Dordrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 33% | Draw 31% | Dordrecht 36%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 59%, Dordrecht 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.