VVV Venlo 2-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 51%, yet the head-to-head data favours Jong AZ — this VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ meet at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - in Eerste Divisie (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VVV Venlo at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong AZ have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.40 for Jong AZ. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from VVV Venlo's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of VVV Venlo's games and 70% of Jong AZ's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Jong AZ have the stronger record — 3 wins to VVV Venlo's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended VVV Venlo 3–4 Jong AZ — a Jong AZ win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Jong AZ have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 70% and Jong AZ 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 56% | Jong AZ 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.78 xG and Jong AZ 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.986 / defence 1.112 | Jong AZ attack 0.802 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.285. Data: built from VVV Venlo's last 50 games and Jong AZ's last 50.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 1.97 | Draw 3.83 | Jong AZ 4.34. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VVV Venlo's last 10 home games and Jong AZ's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VVV Venlo 70% (last 10 home games) | Jong AZ 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG VVV Venlo 1.78 / Jong AZ 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.986 / def 1.112 | Jong AZ attack 0.802 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jong AZ xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ FAQs
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
VVV Venlo 2 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong AZ will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.99) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.80x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from VVV Venlo's last 50 games and Jong AZ's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.83
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.93
1.15
Jong AZ xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
4%
25.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.15 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VVV Venlo's recent record stands at 19W 17D 14L from 50 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 20L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.36 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VVV Venlo have managed 8W 9D 7L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 6W 3D 15L across their last 24 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.58 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
VVV Venlo (Home) vs Jong AZ (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Form FAQs
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 19W 17D 14L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 11D 20L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong AZ away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.38 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won Jong AZ 3-0 VVV Venlo on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
2
Draws
7
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VVV Venlo have won 1, Jong AZ have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong AZ last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: VVV Venlo 4-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 67%, Jong AZ 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VVV Venlo) and 62% (Jong AZ). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VVV Venlo and Jong AZ matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VVV Venlo's games and 58% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VVV Venlo and Jong AZ matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VVV Venlo's matches and 62% of Jong AZ's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong AZ matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 75% of Jong AZ's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and Jong AZ finished level at 2-2 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.78 xG and Jong AZ 1.15 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Jong AZ attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 56%, Jong AZ 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.48 PPG, Jong AZ 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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