Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 41%, yet in-form Groningen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dordrecht vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dordrecht welcome Groningen to M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dordrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Dordrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Groningen stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Groningen are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Dordrecht, 0 for Groningen and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Dordrecht 2–2 Groningen — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Groningen in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 59% versus Groningen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 62% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.53 xG and Groningen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.216 / defence 0.973 | Groningen attack 1.025 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Groningen bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 61 games and Groningen's last 22.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Groningen 32%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.46 | Draw 3.68 | Groningen 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Groningen 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Dordrecht 1.53 / Groningen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.216 / def 0.973 | Groningen attack 1.025 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Groningen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Groningen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Groningen?
Dordrecht 1 - 0 Groningen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Groningen part of?
Dordrecht vs Groningen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 41% chance of winning, Groningen a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.22x the league average against Groningen's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 61 games and Groningen's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.88
1.34
Groningen xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.34 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 17W 17D 22L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 30L across 56 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.21 PPG, Groningen on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 10W 9D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 5W 5D 17L across their last 27 away games, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Groningen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 17D 22L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Groningen have gone 15W 11D 30L in their last 56 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Groningen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.44 PPG; Groningen away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
1
Draws
0
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Groningen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 1, Groningen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2024: Dordrecht 1-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Groningen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 48%, Groningen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Dordrecht and 56% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 26% of games; Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Groningen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 52% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dordrecht's matches and 56% of Groningen's.
Do Dordrecht and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 63% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Groningen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Groningen 1-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.53 xG and Groningen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Groningen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.97 against Groningen attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 61/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 41% | Draw 27% | Groningen 32%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 62%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Groningen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.21 PPG, Groningen 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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