Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Euroborg to face Groningen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Groningen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Groningen. A 0.90 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Jong Utrecht edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 Aug 2023, ended Groningen 0–1 Jong Utrecht — a Jong Utrecht win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Jong Utrecht 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Jong Utrecht 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.958 / defence 0.864 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.402. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Groningen's projected output up. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Groningen's last 19 games and Jong Utrecht's last 57.
Result probabilities: Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.50 | Draw 4.66 | Jong Utrecht 8.47. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (67%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Groningen 40% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 20 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Groningen 2.13 / Jong Utrecht 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.958 / def 0.864 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Groningen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Groningen vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does Groningen vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 December 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Groningen 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 67% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and Jong Utrecht will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Groningen vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.66x) against Groningen's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Groningen's last 19 games and Jong Utrecht's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.66
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.93
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
71.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Groningen vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Groningen and 0.80 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 12W 11D 30L from 53 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 30L across 53 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Groningen against 0.85 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 8W 6D 13L from their last 27 home games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 21L across their last 27 away games, a 0.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.94 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Groningen (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Groningen
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Groningen vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Groningen and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 11D 30L in their last 53 games (0.89 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Groningen's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.11 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 22 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Groningen vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Groningen have won 1, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 December 2023: Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 48%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Groningen) and 59% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 37% of games; Jong Utrecht in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Groningen vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Groningen and Jong Utrecht matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Groningen's recent matches and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Groningen and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Groningen's matches and 59% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Groningen's recent matches and 82% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.42, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Jong Utrecht 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.89 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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