Den Bosch 3-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 72% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cambuur travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Den Bosch have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Den Bosch are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Cambuur's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cambuur are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Den Bosch have won 0, Cambuur 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Sep 2023, ended Den Bosch 1–3 Cambuur — a Cambuur win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 57% versus Cambuur 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 68% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.45 xG and Cambuur 3.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.795 / defence 1.520 | Cambuur attack 1.519 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.402. Den Bosch's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. Cambuur have an above-average attack rating of 1.519, which lifts their away xG to 3.24. Den Bosch's defence rating of 1.520 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambuur's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 57 games and Cambuur's last 19.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 13% | Draw 15% | Cambuur 72%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 7.56 | Draw 6.67 | Cambuur 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 4.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.45 / 3.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 85% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Cambuur's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 70% (last 10 home games) | Cambuur 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 13% | Draw 15% | Cambuur 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% (Under 15%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG Den Bosch 1.45 / Cambuur 3.24 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.795 / def 1.520 | Cambuur attack 1.519 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
3.24
Cambuur xG
74%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs Cambuur FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs Cambuur kick off?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 December 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Den Bosch 3 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Den Bosch vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Cambuur part of?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 13% chance of winning, Cambuur a 72% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Den Bosch and Cambuur will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.80) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 3.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 57 games and Cambuur's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.0%), 1-4 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
13%
7.56
15%
6.67
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
1 – 4
6.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
4.69
3.24
Cambuur xG
7.56
13%
Home win
6.67
15%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
50%
Over 4.5
2.00
50%
Under 4.5
2.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
4%
25.43
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
1%
192.37
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5 | – | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs Cambuur Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Den Bosch and 3.24 for Cambuur, a combined total of 4.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 8D 33L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 14W 8D 31L from 53 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 0.83 PPG, Cambuur on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 5D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 5D 14L from their last 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.19 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.34 scored and 1.98 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
Den Bosch (Home) vs Cambuur (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Den Bosch vs Cambuur Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 12W 8D 33L in their last 53 games (0.83 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 31L in their last 53 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Cambuur away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.23 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2023. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs Cambuur H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Cambuur?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Cambuur last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 65%, Cambuur 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Den Bosch and 65% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs Cambuur Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and Cambuur matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Den Bosch's games and 62% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and Cambuur matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Den Bosch's matches and 65% of Cambuur's.
Do Den Bosch and Cambuur matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 73% of Cambuur's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Cambuur 3-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.45 xG and Cambuur 3.24 xG, a combined 4.69. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.80 / defence 1.52 against Cambuur attack 1.52 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 13% | Draw 15% | Cambuur 72%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 68%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.83 PPG, Cambuur 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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