Dordrecht 2-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.60 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 1, Emmen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Emmen trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 58% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Emmen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.17 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.312 / defence 1.088 | Emmen attack 0.963 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.388. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Dordrecht games / 19 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 4.17. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Dordrecht 2.17 / Emmen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.312 / def 1.088 | Emmen attack 0.963 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Emmen xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 53% chance of winning, Emmen a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.31) and Emmen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.41
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.62
1.46
Emmen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.46 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 17D 24L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.14 PPG, Emmen on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.34 PPG from 29 outings (10W 9D 10L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 8W 5D 16L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.18 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.34 PPG; Emmen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Emmen 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Dordrecht and 66% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dordrecht's games and 66% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Dordrecht's matches and 66% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Emmen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Emmen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 2-1 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.17 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Emmen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.14 PPG, Emmen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.