Dordrecht 2-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dordrecht face Emmen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dordrecht host Emmen at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Emmen have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Emmen have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dordrecht 1.60 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Dordrecht's games and 60% of Emmen's (from Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Dordrecht have won 1, Emmen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Dordrecht 4–2 Emmen — a Dordrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Emmen trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 58% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | Emmen 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Emmen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.17 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.312 / defence 1.088 | Emmen attack 0.963 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.388. Dordrecht carry an above-average attack rating of 1.312 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 57 games and Emmen's last 19.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.89 | Draw 4.41 | Emmen 4.08. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 70% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 20 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Dordrecht 2.17 / Emmen 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.312 / def 1.088 | Emmen attack 0.963 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Emmen xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs Emmen FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs Emmen kick off?
Dordrecht vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Dordrecht 2 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Dordrecht vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Emmen part of?
Dordrecht vs Emmen is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 53% chance of winning, Emmen a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dordrecht and Emmen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (1.31) and Emmen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 57 games and Emmen's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.41
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.62
1.46
Emmen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
3%
35.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs Emmen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.46 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 17D 24L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Emmen's form line: 17W 15D 25L from 57 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dordrecht on 1.14 PPG, Emmen on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 9D 10L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 8W 5D 16L from their last 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.18 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
Dordrecht (Home) vs Emmen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Dordrecht vs Emmen Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and Emmen in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 games (1.14 PPG), while Emmen have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Emmen away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.34 PPG; Emmen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 3-0 Emmen.
Dordrecht's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
1
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs Emmen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 5, Emmen have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Emmen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Dordrecht 0-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Emmen?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 52%, Emmen 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Dordrecht and 66% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs Emmen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and Emmen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Dordrecht's games and 66% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and Emmen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Dordrecht's matches and 66% of Emmen's.
Do Dordrecht and Emmen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 69% of Emmen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Emmen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 2-1 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.17 xG and Emmen 1.46 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 53% | Draw 23% | Emmen 24%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, Emmen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.14 PPG, Emmen 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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