NAC Breda 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NAC Breda and Willem II meet at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 2D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Willem II have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Willem II are 0.50 PPG clear of NAC Breda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2023, ended 4–1 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 71% and Willem II 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 66% | Willem II 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.03 xG and Willem II 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.995 / defence 0.985 | Willem II attack 1.131 / defence 0.664. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.402. Willem II's defence strength of 0.664 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 NAC Breda games / 57 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 24% | Draw 28% | Willem II 48%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Willem II 2.08. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
NAC Breda dominate the H2H record, yet Willem II are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Willem II 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 24% | Draw 28% | Willem II 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG NAC Breda 1.03 / Willem II 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.995 / def 0.985 | Willem II attack 1.131 / def 0.664 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Willem II (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Willem II xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Willem II kick off?
NAC Breda vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 December 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is NAC Breda vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Willem II part of?
NAC Breda vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 24% chance of winning, Willem II a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both NAC Breda and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Willem II 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.99) and Willem II's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (1.13x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.53
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.59
1.56
Willem II xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
5%
20.23
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.56 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 28W 9D 22L from 59 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 32W 15D 12L across 59 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.88 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 15W 5D 9L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 12D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.88 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Willem II in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Willem II in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 28W 9D 22L in their last 59 games (1.58 PPG), while Willem II have gone 32W 15D 12L in their last 59 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Willem II away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.72 PPG; Willem II away: 1.45 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
3
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Willem II?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for NAC Breda, 62% for Willem II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (NAC Breda) and 52% (Willem II).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of NAC Breda's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of NAC Breda's recent games and 52% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Willem II tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Willem II in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.03 xG and Willem II 1.56 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Willem II attack 1.13 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 24% | Draw 28% | Willem II 48%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 66%, Willem II 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.58 PPG, Willem II 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.