MVV 1-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this MVV vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and Groningen meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
MVV's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV at De Geusselt this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Groningen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Groningen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for MVV, 1.50 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 67% versus Groningen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 67% | Groningen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.30 xG and Groningen 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.920 / defence 1.043 | Groningen attack 1.143 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Data: 56 MVV games / 18 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44%. Fair-value odds: MVV 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Groningen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 70% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG MVV 1.30 / Groningen 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.920 / def 1.043 | Groningen attack 1.143 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Groningen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Groningen kick off?
MVV vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Groningen?
MVV 1 - 1 Groningen.
Where is MVV vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Groningen part of?
MVV vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 29% chance of winning, Groningen a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both MVV and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are MVV and Groningen in?
MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
MVV's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (1.14x) against MVV's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.69
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
MVV xG
Total xG
2.93
1.63
Groningen xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
5.12
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are MVV and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for MVV and 1.63 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
MVV's recent record stands at 22W 7D 23L from 52 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 30L across 52 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Groningen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, MVV have managed 13W 4D 8L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 4W 4D 17L across 25 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
MVV are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.15 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Groningen in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 22W 7D 23L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Groningen have gone 12W 10D 30L in their last 52 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Groningen away?
MVV's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.72 PPG; Groningen away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
1
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Groningen?
From 2 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Groningen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Groningen 3-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 68%, Groningen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for MVV and 60% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of MVV's games and 52% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of MVV's matches and 60% of Groningen's.
Do MVV and Groningen tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Groningen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Groningen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and Groningen finished level at 1-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.30 xG and Groningen 1.63 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Groningen attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 29% | Draw 27% | Groningen 44%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 67%, Groningen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Groningen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.