Jong Utrecht 2-5 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven meet at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Eindhoven are 0.50 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Eindhoven, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Eindhoven have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 43% versus FC Eindhoven 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 43% | FC Eindhoven 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.765 / defence 0.610 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.968 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong Utrecht's defence rating of 0.610 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Jong Utrecht games / 56 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | FC Eindhoven 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | FC Eindhoven 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.12 / FC Eindhoven 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.765 / def 0.610 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.968 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.81
FC Eindhoven xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 5 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.97x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.92
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
1.93
0.81
FC Eindhoven xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.81 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 11W 13D 32L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 21W 18D 17L from 56 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 8W 9D 10L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.38 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 13D 32L in their last 56 games (0.82 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 21W 18D 17L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 0-6 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 33%, FC Eindhoven 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Jong Utrecht) and 48% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 59% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 48% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong Utrecht 2-5 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.81 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven outscored their 0.81 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.77 / defence 0.61 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 34% | FC Eindhoven 25%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a FC Eindhoven win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 43%, FC Eindhoven 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.