Dordrecht 1-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dordrecht welcome MVV to M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dordrecht have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
MVV — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, MVV have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Dordrecht carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Dordrecht have won 4, MVV 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Aug 2025, ended Dordrecht 1–0 MVV — a Dordrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
MVV trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 52% versus MVV 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 58% | MVV 60%). Note also that MVV surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Dordrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.95 xG and MVV 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.882 / defence 0.930 | MVV attack 0.672 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.455. MVV's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dordrecht's projected output up. MVV's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 67 games and MVV's last 67.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.64 | Draw 4.44 | MVV 6.11. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dordrecht's last 10 home games and MVV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | MVV 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 30 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Dordrecht 1.95 / MVV 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.882 / def 0.930 | MVV attack 0.672 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.91
MVV xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs MVV FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs MVV kick off?
Dordrecht vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 6 March 2026 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs MVV?
Dordrecht 1 - 1 MVV.
Where is Dordrecht vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs MVV part of?
Dordrecht vs MVV is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 61% chance of winning, MVV a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dordrecht and MVV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 67 games and MVV's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.44
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.86
0.91
MVV xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
2%
42.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs MVV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.91 for MVV, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 31W 16D 20L from 67 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 32L across 67 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over MVV heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 18W 9D 6L from their last 33 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 4W 8D 21L across their last 33 away games, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.30 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
Dordrecht (Home) vs MVV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Dordrecht vs MVV Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and MVV in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 31W 16D 20L in their last 67 games (1.63 PPG), while MVV have gone 18W 17D 32L in their last 67 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or MVV away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.91 PPG; MVV away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, MVV in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2025, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 3-0 MVV.
Dordrecht's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs MVV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and MVV?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and MVV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Dordrecht 1-1 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 58%, MVV 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dordrecht) and 54% (MVV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; MVV in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs MVV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and MVV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 39% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dordrecht and MVV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Dordrecht's matches and 54% of MVV's.
Do Dordrecht and MVV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 73% of MVV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and MVV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht and MVV finished level at 1-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.95 xG and MVV 0.91 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against MVV attack 0.67 / defence 1.32, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 61% | Draw 23% | MVV 16%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 58%, MVV 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
MVV's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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