Roda 4-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.60 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Roda: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Dordrecht, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Dordrecht winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 53% versus Dordrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 48% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.87 xG and Dordrecht 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.979 / defence 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 1.055 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Roda's defence rating of 0.638 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Roda games / 62 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Roda (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 40% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Roda 1.87 / Dordrecht 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.979 / def 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 1.055 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Roda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dordrecht xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 4 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 60% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.07
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Roda xG
Total xG
2.74
0.88
Dordrecht xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
40.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Roda and 0.88 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 24W 15D 23L from 62 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 25L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 15W 6D 9L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 9D 15L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.70 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dordrecht 0-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Dordrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 53% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 53% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 4-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.87 xG and Dordrecht 0.88 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 0.64 against Dordrecht attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 48%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.