Groningen 3-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Groningen welcome FC OSS to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Groningen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1, FC OSS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Groningen in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus FC OSS 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | FC OSS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.53 xG and FC OSS 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.029 / defence 0.952 | FC OSS attack 0.655 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.310. Data: 23 Groningen games / 62 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 19%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 5.26. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 50% | FC OSS 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Groningen 1.53 / FC OSS 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.029 / def 0.952 | FC OSS attack 0.655 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Groningen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC OSS xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs FC OSS kick off?
Groningen vs FC OSS kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs FC OSS?
Groningen 3 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Groningen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs FC OSS part of?
Groningen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 53% chance of winning, FC OSS a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Groningen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Groningen and FC OSS in?
Groningen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
53%
1.90
29%
3.48
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.35
0.82
FC OSS xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Groningen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Groningen and 0.82 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Groningen have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 15W 11D 31L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 13W 9D 35L from 57 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 0.98 PPG, FC OSS on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.25 PPG from 28 outings (10W 5D 13L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 4W 6D 18L from 28 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.95 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 15W 11D 31L in their last 57 games (0.98 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 13W 9D 35L in their last 57 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or FC OSS away?
Groningen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.25 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and FC OSS runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Groningen
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and FC OSS?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Groningen 3-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and FC OSS?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 50%, FC OSS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Groningen) and 50% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 36% of games; FC OSS in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Groningen's matches and 50% of FC OSS's.
Do Groningen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat FC OSS 3-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.53 xG and FC OSS 0.82 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC OSS landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against FC OSS attack 0.66 / defence 0.90, drawn from 23/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 53% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, FC OSS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.98 PPG, FC OSS 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.