FC OSS 1-3 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as FC OSS welcome ADO Den Haag to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour ADO Den Haag, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for FC OSS.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ADO Den Haag have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 44% versus ADO Den Haag 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 56% | ADO Den Haag 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 0.99 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.691 / defence 1.314 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.086 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 FC OSS games / 61 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 18% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 58%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | ADO Den Haag 1.72. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 20% | ADO Den Haag 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 18% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG FC OSS 0.99 / ADO Den Haag 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.691 / def 1.314 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.086 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
FC OSS 1 - 3 ADO Den Haag.
Where is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag part of?
FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 18% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC OSS and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 0W | Draws 2 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.69x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
18%
5.58
24%
4.16
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.92
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
5.58
18%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
3%
38.24
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.92 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, FC OSS have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 15W 9D 37L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 25W 19D 17L from 61 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.10 PPG from 30 outings (10W 3D 17L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 13W 10D 7L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.61 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 15W 9D 37L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 25W 19D 17L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.10 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC OSS
2
Draws
8
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 0, ADO Den Haag have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when FC OSS 3-4 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 43%, ADO Den Haag 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (FC OSS) and 53% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 33%; FC OSS have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC OSS's recent matches and 63% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC OSS's matches and 53% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do FC OSS and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC OSS 1-3 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 0.99 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 18% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 58%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 56%, ADO Den Haag 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.