Dordrecht 5-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Matchoholic Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at Matchoholic Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dordrecht's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Dordrecht 1W, Den Bosch 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 55% versus Den Bosch 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Den Bosch 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.30 xG and Den Bosch 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.136 / defence 1.039 | Den Bosch attack 0.936 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. Data: 49 Dordrecht games / 49 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 20%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Den Bosch 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 60% | Den Bosch 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 59% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Dordrecht 2.30 / Den Bosch 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.136 / def 1.039 | Den Bosch attack 0.936 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Den Bosch xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Dordrecht 5 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Dordrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 59% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Dordrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (4 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 1.14x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.94x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.72
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.59
1.29
Den Bosch xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
10%
9.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
2%
50.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.29 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 13W 14D 22L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 31L across 49 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Dordrecht against 0.90 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 4W 2D 18L across 24 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.20 scored and 2.14 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 13W 14D 22L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 5D 31L in their last 49 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.33 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Dordrecht
2
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 6, Den Bosch have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Den Bosch?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 50%, Den Bosch 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Dordrecht and 67% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dordrecht have failed to score in 29% of games; Den Bosch in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 46% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Dordrecht's matches and 67% of Den Bosch's.
Do Dordrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Den Bosch 5-1 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.30 xG and Den Bosch 1.29 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Den Bosch attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 59% | Draw 21% | Den Bosch 20%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Den Bosch 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.08 PPG, Den Bosch 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.