NAC Breda 1-1 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Helmond Sport travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 1D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.60 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for NAC Breda, 1 for Helmond Sport and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 76% and Helmond Sport 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 71% | Helmond Sport 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.87 xG and Helmond Sport 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.166 / defence 1.317 | Helmond Sport attack 1.197 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. Data: 49 NAC Breda games / 49 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 43%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Helmond Sport 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 80% | Helmond Sport 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 35% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG NAC Breda 1.87 / Helmond Sport 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.166 / def 1.317 | Helmond Sport attack 1.197 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Helmond Sport xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kick off?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Helmond Sport.
Where is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport part of?
NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 35% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both NAC Breda and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Helmond Sport 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.17x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
35%
2.89
22%
4.50
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.97
2.10
Helmond Sport xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.01
Clean Sheet
12%
8.16
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
4%
23.61
7%
15.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for NAC Breda and 2.10 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 22W 7D 20L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.49 PPG, Helmond Sport on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (12W 3D 9L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 6D 12L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 22W 7D 20L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Helmond Sport away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.62 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Helmond Sport won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Helmond Sport 1-0 NAC Breda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 75%, Helmond Sport 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (NAC Breda) and 50% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of NAC Breda's games and 46% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of NAC Breda's matches and 50% of Helmond Sport's.
Do NAC Breda and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Helmond Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and Helmond Sport finished level at 1-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.87 xG and Helmond Sport 2.10 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.17 / defence 1.32 against Helmond Sport attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 35% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 43%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 71%, Helmond Sport 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.49 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.