De Graafschap 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.90 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for De Graafschap, 2 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 4–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus FC Eindhoven 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | FC Eindhoven 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.860 / defence 0.738 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.017 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.331. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. De Graafschap's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 De Graafschap games / 49 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | FC Eindhoven 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 40% | FC Eindhoven 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG De Graafschap 1.06 / FC Eindhoven 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.860 / def 0.738 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.017 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Eindhoven xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 35% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.85
33%
3.02
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.06
1.00
FC Eindhoven xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 20W 9D 20L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 20W 15D 14L from 49 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.41 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (12W 4D 8L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 8W 8D 8L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.41 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 42%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 42% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 42% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.00 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 0.74 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 35% | Draw 33% | FC Eindhoven 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, FC Eindhoven 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.41 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.