Jong Utrecht 0-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Den Bosch at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 0W 4D 6L at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 0.40 PPG, Den Bosch 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong Utrecht, 2 for Den Bosch and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 45% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 48% | Den Bosch 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 0.93 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.653 / defence 1.099 | Den Bosch attack 0.744 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.404. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Jong Utrecht games / 71 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 40% | Den Bosch 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Jong Utrecht 0.93 / Den Bosch 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.653 / def 1.099 | Den Bosch attack 0.744 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Den Bosch xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 29% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
29%
3.46
31%
3.25
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.07
1.15
Den Bosch xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.15 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 12W 16D 43L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 16W 13D 42L from 71 games, 0.86 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.73 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (9W 11D 15L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 6W 5D 24L from 35 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.07 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 16D 43L in their last 71 games (0.73 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 16W 13D 42L in their last 71 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.09 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Den Bosch have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 37%, Den Bosch 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Jong Utrecht) and 57% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 46% of games; Den Bosch in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 40% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 57% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Utrecht 0-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 0.93 xG and Den Bosch 1.15 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.65 / defence 1.10 against Den Bosch attack 0.74 / defence 0.87, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 29% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 40%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 48%, Den Bosch 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.73 PPG, Den Bosch 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.