De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong Utrecht travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, De Graafschap have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, De Graafschap have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Utrecht stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Jong Utrecht have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.60 (Jong Utrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended De Graafschap 3–2 Jong Utrecht — a De Graafschap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Jong Utrecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Jong Utrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.122 / defence 1.088 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.077 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.483. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 65 games and Jong Utrecht's last 64.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.21 | Draw 4.45 | Jong Utrecht 3.10. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 80% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 28 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG De Graafschap 2.07 / Jong Utrecht 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.122 / def 1.088 | Jong Utrecht attack 1.077 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Jong Utrecht xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 February 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.12x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 65 games and Jong Utrecht's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.21
22%
4.45
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.81
1.74
Jong Utrecht xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.66
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
4%
24.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.74 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 31W 14D 19L from 64 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 32L across 64 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 19W 5D 7L from their last 31 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 4W 9D 18L across their last 31 away games, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.19 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs Jong Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 31W 14D 19L in their last 64 games (1.67 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 20D 32L in their last 64 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong Utrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.00 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
De Graafschap have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
4
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 61%, Jong Utrecht 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for De Graafschap and 64% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of De Graafschap's games and 61% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of De Graafschap's matches and 64% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 81% of Jong Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong Utrecht 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 1-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.74 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong Utrecht landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 1.09 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.08 / defence 1.07, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Jong Utrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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