Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almere City FC face ADO Den Haag.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
ADO Den Haag travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Almere City FC stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, ADO Den Haag have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.60 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Almere City FC have won 2, ADO Den Haag 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Almere City FC 1–2 ADO Den Haag — a ADO Den Haag win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
ADO Den Haag in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 51% versus ADO Den Haag 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 59% | ADO Den Haag 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almere City FC surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while ADO Den Haag have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.31 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.045 / defence 1.006 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.381 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.466. ADO Den Haag bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Almere City FC's projected output down. ADO Den Haag have an above-average attack rating of 1.381, which lifts their away xG to 2.04. Data: built from Almere City FC's last 29 games and ADO Den Haag's last 67.
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 24% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 54%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 4.26 | Draw 4.35 | ADO Den Haag 1.87. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.31 / 2.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Almere City FC's last 10 home games and ADO Den Haag's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almere City FC 60% (last 10 home games) | ADO Den Haag 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 24% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Almere City FC 1.31 / ADO Den Haag 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.045 / def 1.006 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.381 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
2.04
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag FAQs
What time does Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Almere City FC 1 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 24% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.04) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almere City FC's last 29 games and ADO Den Haag's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
24%
4.26
23%
4.35
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.34
2.04
ADO Den Haag xG
4.26
24%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
13%
7.68
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
3%
32.66
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Almere City FC and 2.04 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 13D 33L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 2.10 PPG from 63 outings (41W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across their last 31 home games, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 2.03 points per game from their last 31 away games (19W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Almere City FC (Home) vs ADO Den Haag (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almere City FC
Current Season
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
❓ Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag Form FAQs
What form are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 17W 13D 33L in their last 63 games (1.02 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 41W 9D 13L in their last 63 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.10 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2022, when Almere City FC won Almere City FC 4-1 ADO Den Haag.
Almere City FC's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Almere City FC have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Almere City FC 1-0 ADO Den Haag.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 48%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Almere City FC and 64% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag in 32%; Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almere City FC vs ADO Den Haag Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 64% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Almere City FC and ADO Den Haag matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 81% of ADO Den Haag's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat ADO Den Haag 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat ADO Den Haag 1-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.31 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.04 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ADO Den Haag landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.38 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 24% | Draw 23% | ADO Den Haag 54%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Almere City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 59%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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