Venezia 3-2 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Palermo at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 1.50 PPG, Palermo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Venezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palermo in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus Palermo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 44% | Palermo 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.56 xG and Palermo 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.996 / defence 1.272 | Palermo attack 1.131 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 0.975. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Venezia games / 32 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 25% | Palermo 34%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Palermo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 41% | Draw 25% | Palermo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Venezia 1.56 / Palermo 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.996 / def 1.272 | Palermo attack 1.131 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.127 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Venezia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palermo xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Palermo kick off?
Venezia vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Venezia 3 - 2 Palermo.
Where is Venezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Palermo part of?
Venezia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 41% chance of winning, Palermo a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Venezia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Venezia and Palermo in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.00) and Palermo's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.99
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.96
1.40
Palermo xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Venezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Venezia and 1.40 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 9W 9D 14L from 32 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 9L across 32 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.12 PPG, Palermo on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 4W 5D 7L from 16 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 3W 7D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 9W 9D 14L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Palermo have gone 10W 13D 9L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Palermo away?
Venezia's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.06 PPG; Palermo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Venezia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Palermo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Palermo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Mar 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Venezia have won 6, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Venezia 2-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Palermo?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 69%, Palermo at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 44% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Venezia's games and 62% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Palermo tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Palermo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Palermo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Palermo 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.56 xG and Palermo 1.40 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.00 / defence 1.27 against Palermo attack 1.13 / defence 1.39, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 41% | Draw 25% | Palermo 34%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 44%, Palermo 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.12 PPG, Palermo 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.