Ternana 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Ternana take on Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Pisa at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pisa away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Ternana have won 0, Pisa 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 54% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Pisa 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.88 xG and Pisa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.969 / defence 1.023 | Pisa attack 0.917 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 0.971. Pisa's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Ternana games / 70 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Pisa 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Pisa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 32% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Ternana 0.88 / Pisa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.969 / def 1.023 | Pisa attack 0.917 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.140 / away 0.971 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pisa xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Pisa kick off?
Ternana vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Ternana 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Ternana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Pisa part of?
Ternana vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 32% chance of winning, Pisa a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ternana and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Ternana and Pisa in?
Ternana (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.97) and Pisa's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.89
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.79
0.91
Pisa xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Ternana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Ternana and 0.91 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 25W 19D 26L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 26W 26D 18L from 70 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.34 PPG, Pisa on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.62 PPG from 34 outings (16W 7D 11L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 10W 12D 12L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.21 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 25W 19D 26L in their last 70 games (1.34 PPG), while Pisa have gone 26W 26D 18L in their last 70 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Pisa away?
Ternana's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.62 PPG; Pisa away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ternana or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pisa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Pisa won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ternana
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Pisa 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 41%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ternana) and 29% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pisa in 35%; Pisa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Ternana's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ternana's recent games and 29% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Pisa tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Pisa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.88 xG and Pisa 0.91 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Pisa attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 32% | Draw 35% | Pisa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Pisa 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.34 PPG, Pisa 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.