Ascoli 1-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ascoli vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Ascoli welcome Sudtirol to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ascoli have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sudtirol — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ascoli 1.30 PPG, Sudtirol 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Ascoli's 30% rate and Sudtirol's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ascoli, 0 for Sudtirol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 47% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 38% | Sudtirol 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.82 xG and Sudtirol 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.929 / defence 1.183 | Sudtirol attack 0.897 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 0.975. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Ascoli games / 32 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 39%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Sudtirol 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 28% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Ascoli 0.82 / Sudtirol 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.929 / def 1.183 | Sudtirol attack 0.897 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.127 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sudtirol xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Ascoli 1 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Ascoli vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Sudtirol part of?
Ascoli vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 28% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ascoli and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
28%
3.59
33%
3.05
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.86
1.04
Sudtirol xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Ascoli and 1.04 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 9D 13L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.62 PPG from 32 outings (13W 13D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Ascoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ascoli's home form reads 3W 5D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.73 points per game from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.09 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 13W 13D 6L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 0.93 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sudtirol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Ascoli's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Ascoli 1-2 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Sudtirol 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Ascoli and 20% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 53%; Ascoli have failed to score in 47% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ascoli's recent matches and 27% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ascoli's recent games and 20% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ascoli defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Sudtirol 1-0 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.82 xG and Sudtirol 1.04 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sudtirol landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 28% | Draw 33% | Sudtirol 39%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ascoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 38%, Sudtirol 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Ascoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ascoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.