Modena 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Parma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Modena, 1.70 for Parma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 53% versus Parma 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 47% | Parma 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.11 xG and Parma 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.935 / defence 0.991 | Parma attack 1.040 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 0.975. Data: 32 Modena games / 70 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 30% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 40% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 30% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Modena 1.11 / Parma 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.935 / def 0.991 | Parma attack 1.040 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.128 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Modena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Parma xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Parma kick off?
Modena vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Parma?
Modena 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Modena vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Parma part of?
Modena vs Parma is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 38% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Modena and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Parma?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 0 | Parma 0W.
What form are Modena and Parma in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Parma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.94) and Parma's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.04x) against Modena's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.31
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Modena xG
Total xG
2.12
1.00
Parma xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Modena and 1.00 for Parma, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 6D 14L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Modena against 1.47 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.19 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Parma in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 6D 14L in their last 32 games (1.31 PPG), while Parma have gone 13W 8D 11L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Parma away?
Modena's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.53 PPG; Parma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Modena or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Parma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Parma have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Modena 3-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Parma?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 47%, Parma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Modena and 33% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Parma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Modena's recent matches and 40% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Modena's recent games and 33% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Parma tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Parma in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 33, as Modena and Parma drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.11 xG and Parma 1.00 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Parma attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 30% | Parma 32%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 47%, Parma 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.31 PPG, Parma 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.