Cosenza 1-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Cosenza welcome Cittadella to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.20 (Cittadella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cosenza, 0 for Cittadella and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cittadella trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Cittadella 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 40% | Cittadella 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.07 xG and Cittadella 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.921 / defence 0.836 | Cittadella attack 0.865 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 0.975. Data: 70 Cosenza games / 70 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Cittadella 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cittadella's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 40% | Cittadella 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cosenza 1.07 / Cittadella 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.921 / def 0.836 | Cittadella attack 0.865 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.127 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Cittadella xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cittadella kick off?
Cosenza vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Cosenza vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cittadella part of?
Cosenza vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Cittadella a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cosenza and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 2 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Cittadella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.02
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.77
0.71
Cittadella xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.71 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 18W 20D 32L from 70 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 21W 25D 24L across 70 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.06 PPG, Cittadella on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 15W 8D 12L from 35 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cittadella's away record stands at 10W 13D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.94 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 18W 20D 32L in their last 70 games (1.06 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 21W 25D 24L in their last 70 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cittadella away?
Cosenza's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.51 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cittadella in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Cittadella runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cosenza
5
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cittadella have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 49%, Cittadella 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cosenza) and 31% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cittadella in 34%; Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Cittadella in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Cosenza's recent matches and 43% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cosenza's recent games and 31% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cittadella tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Cittadella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Cittadella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.07 xG and Cittadella 0.71 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Cittadella attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Cittadella 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.06 PPG, Cittadella 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.