Palermo 0-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palermo host Cosenza at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cosenza's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.70 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Palermo, 1 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Palermo in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 39% | Cosenza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.96 xG and Cosenza 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.139 / defence 1.034 | Cosenza attack 0.793 / defence 1.510. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 0.982. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.510 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Palermo games / 69 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 65% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 15%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Cosenza 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 65% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Palermo 1.96 / Cosenza 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.139 / def 1.034 | Cosenza attack 0.793 / def 1.510 | league avg home 1.142 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Palermo (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Cosenza xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Cosenza kick off?
Palermo vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Palermo 0 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Palermo vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Cosenza part of?
Palermo vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 65% chance of winning, Cosenza a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palermo and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palermo's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.79
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.77
0.81
Cosenza xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
2%
48.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Palermo and 0.81 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Cosenza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 12D 9L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 9W 8D 14L from 31 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.35 PPG, Cosenza on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 3D 10L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.84 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Cosenza away?
Palermo's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.73 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Palermo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palermo's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 40%, Cosenza 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Palermo) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 33% of games; Cosenza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palermo's recent matches and 40% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Cosenza tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 32, as Palermo and Cosenza drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.96 xG and Cosenza 0.81 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Cosenza landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Cosenza attack 0.79 / defence 1.51, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 65% | Draw 21% | Cosenza 15%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 39%, Cosenza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.35 PPG, Cosenza 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.