Venezia 3-1 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Padova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Padova travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia in Serie B (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Venezia have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Venezia have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Padova stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Padova away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Venezia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Padova and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Venezia 2–0 Padova — a Venezia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Padova trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Padova 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 60% | Padova 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.96 xG and Padova 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.337 / defence 0.887 | Padova attack 0.823 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.126. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.337 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 30 games and Padova's last 30.
Result probabilities: Venezia 63% | Draw 23% | Padova 14%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.58 | Draw 4.39 | Padova 7.11. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Padova 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 63% | Draw 23% | Padova 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Venezia 1.96 / Padova 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.337 / def 0.887 | Padova attack 0.823 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Venezia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Padova xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Padova FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Padova kick off?
Venezia vs Padova kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Padova?
Venezia 3 - 1 Padova.
Where is Venezia vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Padova part of?
Venezia vs Padova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 63% chance of winning, Padova a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Venezia and Padova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Venezia vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 1.34x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 30 games and Padova's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
63%
1.58
23%
4.39
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.78
0.82
Padova xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
2%
50.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Padova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Venezia and 0.82 for Padova, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Padova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Venezia have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 19W 7D 4L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Padova's form line: 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Padova.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.60 PPG from their last 15 home games (13W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.13 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Padova have gone 5W 3D 7L from their last 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.03 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Padova
Current Season
Venezia (Home) vs Padova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Current Season
Padova
Current Season
❓ Venezia vs Padova Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Padova in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 19W 7D 4L in their last 30 games (2.13 PPG), while Padova have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Padova away?
Venezia's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.60 PPG; Padova away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Venezia or Padova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Padova in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Padova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Padova?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Padova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Padova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2026: Venezia 3-1 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Padova?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 40%, Padova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Venezia) and 40% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Padova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Padova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Padova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Venezia's recent matches and 40% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Padova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Venezia's recent games and 40% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Padova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Venezia's recent matches and 60% of Padova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Padova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Padova 3-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.96 xG and Padova 0.82 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.34 / defence 0.89 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 63% | Draw 23% | Padova 14%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 60%, Padova 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Padova's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Padova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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